Scenario framework for the week ahead. Bull case: a daily close above the upper boundary of the month-long range targets the measured extension, supported by softer real yields. Base case: price continues to rotate within the range while the macro calendar supplies conflicting signals; tactics favour fading the edges. Bear case: a firm US data surprise lifts the dollar and real yields, breaking the range floor and opening a deeper retracement toward the prior demand zone.
Key levels are published on the analysis pages once the desk updates its model run. Probability weights shift with incoming data; treat the framework as a map, not a signal.
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